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☆ Retail sales jumped 0.7% in March, much higher than expected
▼ + stars: | 2024-04-15 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

Excluding auto-related receipts, retail sales jumped 1.1%, also well ahead of the estimate for a 0.5% increase. An increase in gas prices helped push the headline retail sales number higher, with sales up 2.1% on the month at service stations. Resilient consumer spending has helped keep the economy afloat despite higher interest rates and concerns over stubborn inflation. Consumer spending accounts for nearly 70% of U.S. economic output so it is critical to continued growth in gross domestic product. Stronger consumer spending could cause the Fed to hold off longer on cuts, said Andrew Hunter, deputy chief U.S. economist at Capital Economics.

Persons: Dow, Andrew Hunter, Hunter Organizations: Commerce Department, Labor Department, Sporting, Federal Reserve, Capital Economics Locations: Iran, Israel

☆ Fed rate hikes are creeping back into the conversation
▼ + stars: | 2024-02-21 | by ( Phil Rosen | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +6 min

This story is available exclusively to Business Insider subscribers. AdvertisementExperts maintain that any hikes this year are unlikely, but say it's notable how they have creeped back into the policy conversation once again. "You can't say zero probability for something to break in the event of another rate hike," Jason Draho, head of asset allocation in the Americas for UBS Global Wealth Management, told Business Insider. "That last mile [of inflation] will be harder to obtain," Anthony Saglimbene, Ameriprise Financial's chief market strategist, told Business Insider. "The Fed's erring on the side of hawkishness," Hunter told Business Insider.

Persons: —, Larry Summers, Summers, Jason Draho, you'd, Goldman Sachs, Anthony Saglimbene, Ameriprise, Paul Mielczarski, Mielczarski, Ameriprise's Saglimbene, Andrew Hunter, Hunter Organizations: Service, Federal, Business, PPI, Fed, Former, Bloomberg, Traders, UBS Global Wealth Management, Capital Economics Locations: Americas, OER, Brandywine, hawkishness

☆ Consumer sentiment surges while inflation outlook dips, University of Michigan survey shows
▼ + stars: | 2024-01-19 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

The University of Michigan's Consumer Survey of Consumers showed a reading of 78.8 for January, its highest level since July 2021 and up 21.4% from a year ago. On a two-month basis, sentiment showed its largest increase since 1991, said Joanne Hsu, the survey's director. "Consumer views were supported by confidence that inflation has turned a corner and strengthening income expectations," Hsu said. Along with the improved outlook on general conditions, survey respondents displayed more confidence that inflation is coming down. The outlook for the inflation rate a year from now declined to 2.9%, down from 3.1% in December for the lowest reading since December 2020.

Persons: Joanne Hsu, Hsu, Andrew Hunter, Stocks Organizations: Veteran, The Department of Labor, The University of Michigan's Consumer Survey, Consumers, Republicans, Federal Reserve, AAA, Capital Economics Locations: Long Beach , California

☆ CNBC Daily Open: Inflation goal in view
▼ + stars: | 2023-12-26 | by ( Yeo Boon Ping | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

Brown | AFP | Getty ImagesThis report is from today's CNBC Daily Open, our new, international markets newsletter. CNBC Daily Open brings investors up to speed on everything they need to know, no matter where they are. The personal consumption expenditures price index measures how much consumers spend on goods and services. By contrast, the consumer price index tracks the price of goods and services — not actual consumer behavior. For the week, the S&P was up 0.8%, the Dow 0.2% and the Nasdaq 1.2%.

Persons: Frederic J, Brown, That's, Andrew Hunter, Russell, bode, Greg Bassuk, —, Jeff Cox Organizations: HK, AFP, Getty, CNBC, Capital Economics, CPI, Nasdaq, Dow Jones, Nike, Dow, AXS Investments Locations: Rosemead , California

☆ CNBC Daily Open: Inflation mission accomplished?
▼ + stars: | 2023-12-26 | by ( Yeo Boon Ping | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

Justin Sullivan | Getty Images News | Getty ImagesThis report is from today's CNBC Daily Open, our new, international markets newsletter. CNBC Daily Open brings investors up to speed on everything they need to know, no matter where they are. The personal consumption expenditures price index measures how much consumers spend on goods and services. By contrast, the consumer price index tracks the price of goods and services — not actual consumer behavior. For the week, the S&P was up 0.8%, the Dow 0.2% and the Nasdaq 1.2%.

Persons: Justin Sullivan, That's, Andrew Hunter, Russell, bode, Greg Bassuk, —, Jeff Cox Organizations: HK, Getty, CNBC, Capital Economics, CPI, Nasdaq, Dow Jones, Nike, Dow, AXS Investments Locations: San Anselmo , California

☆ Fed's favorite inflation gauge shows prices rose at 3.2% annual rate in November, less than expected
▼ + stars: | 2023-12-22 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

A gauge the Federal Reserve uses for inflation rose slightly in November and edged closer to the central bank's goal. On a six-month basis, core PCE increased 1.9%, indicating that if current trends continue the Fed essentially has reached its goal. "The slowing in core inflation opens the door for fed funds rate cuts in 2024; the timing will depend on core PCE numbers over the next few months." Though policymakers watch both measures, they are more concerned with core prices as a longer-run inflation gauge. A 2.7% slide in energy prices and a 0.1% decrease in food helped hold back inflation for the month.

Persons: Dow Jones, Andrew Hunter, Gus Faucher Organizations: Federal Reserve, Commerce Department, Capital Economics, Markets, PNC Financial Services, Fed, PCE, Federal, CNBC PRO

☆ Retail sales rose 0.3% in November vs. expectations for a decline
▼ + stars: | 2023-12-14 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Retail sales rose 0.3% in November, stronger than the 0.2% decline in October and better than the Dow Jones estimate for a decrease of 0.1%, the Commerce Department reported Thursday. Excluding autos, sales rose 0.2%, also better than the forecast for no change. Stripping out autos and gas, sales rose 0.6%. Sales held up despite a 2.9% slide in receipts at gas stations, as energy prices broadly slumped during the month. Gas station sales were off 9.4% on a 12-month basis.

Persons: Dow Jones, Andrew Hunter Organizations: Commerce Department, Capital Economics, . Gas, Labor Department, Economists, Federal Reserve, Federal, Market, CNBC PRO

☆ British advertised salaries fall but job ads pick up: Adzuna
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-27 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

Job search website Adzuna said annual advertised salaries averaged 36,946 pounds ($46,038.41) last month, down 0.4% from September and taking the decline since April to 1.9%. "Falling advertised salaries may not appear to be good news for jobseekers but it does signal that the menace of inflation is finally in retreat," Andrew Hunter, co-founder of Adzuna said. However, online job ads climbed 0.35% to 1.03 million adverts, the biggest month-on-month jump since June, helped by pre-Christmas hiring in sectors such as retail and warehousing. But it is closely watching for signs of inflation pressure in the jobs market. An official measure of vacancies, published earlier this month, showed vacancies hit a two-year low of 957,000 in the three months to October and near record wage growth cooled slightly from in the quarter to September.

Persons: Susannah Ireland, Adzuna, Andrew Hunter, Brexit, Suban Abdulla, William Schomberg Organizations: City, REUTERS, Bank of England, Employers, Thomson Locations: London, Britain

☆ Where prices fell in October 2023 — in one chart
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-15 | by ( Greg Iacurci | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

Bloomberg | Bloomberg | Getty ImagesInflation continued its broad moderation in October, down significantly from pandemic-era highs that hadn't been seen in more than 40 years. Why some prices are deflatingwatch nowSome prices, like those for airline tickets and eggs, have also declined off record-high levels. Egg and airline ticket prices are down about 22% and 13% in the past year, according to CPI data. How measurement quirks affect pricesSome of the declines are due partly to measurement quirks. Consumers get more for roughly the same amount of money, which shows up as a price decline in the CPI data.

Persons: hadn't, Andrew Hunter Organizations: Bloomberg, Getty, Capital Economics, CNBC, U.S . Bureau of Labor Statistics, CPI Locations: New, U.S

☆ Cooling job market no reason for panic yet, economists say: 'It's a slowdown, not a collapse'
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-03 | by ( Greg Iacurci | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +4 min

Brown | Afp | Getty ImagesThe job market continues to show signs of cooling, but alarm bells aren't ringing just yet, economists said. The unemployment rate rose to 3.9% in October, from 3.8% in September, the BLS said. "There's almost no exception in this report: Every indicator suggests a slowing, slackening labor market," she said. "The days of explosive growth are gone, as the labor market shifts into healthier and more sustainable territory," said Noah Yosif, lead labor economist at UKG, a payroll and shift management company. The rise in the unemployment rate may also just be a sign that the extremely hot labor market is loosening a bit, Bunker added.

Persons: Frederic J, Brown, Julia Pollak, Pollak, Noah Yosif, Aaron Terrazas, Terrazas, Andrew Hunter, Nick Bunker Organizations: Afp, Getty, U.S . Bureau of Labor Statistics, BLS, Workers, Finance, Union, Capital Economics Locations: Los Angeles, U.S

Six of the 11 major S&P 500 sectors were trading lower, with information technology (.SPLRCT) leading losses. Pfizer's shares (PFE.N) fell 1.5% after the drugmaker reported its first quarterly loss since 2019. U.S. equities are tracking their third straight month in the red, with the S&P 500 (.SPX) and the Nasdaq (.IXIC) on course for their worst October since 2018. The Fed kicks off a two-day monetary policy meeting on Tuesday. The Fed's commentary on Wednesday would be crucial in assessing how long monetary policy could stay restrictive amid recent signs of economic strength.

Persons: Brendan McDermid, Andrew Hunter, Amruta Khandekar, Shashwat Chauhan, Saumyadeb Chakrabarty, Shounak Dasgupta, Maju Samuel Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, Corp, Dow, Nasdaq, Federal, Nvidia, Microsoft, Caterpillar, Chicago PMI, Capital Economics, Dow Jones, PDD Holdings, VF Corp, Vans, Arista Networks, Sarepta Therapeutics, NYSE, Thomson Locations: New York City, U.S, China, Bengaluru

☆ Fall in UK jobs postings shows labour market is cooling, Adzuna says
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-30 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

Online job adverts fell by 1.6% in September from August, bucking the usual end-of-summer bounce in job postings, and advertised salaries fell by the same amount, Adzuna said. "September traditionally sees a surge in job market activity but the figures we're seeing this year could signal a cooling off of the job market, which had shown signs of resilience earlier in the year," Adzuna co-founder Andrew Hunter said. The Office for National Statistics said earlier this month its measure of job vacancies fell to a two-year low of 988,000 in the three months to September. Separately on Monday, a survey showed small businesses recovering a bit of their lost confidence but the overall mood remained negative. Martin McTague, FSB's national chair, said the survey showed signs of stabilisation after 18 months of surging costs.

Persons: Adzuna, Andrew Hunter, BoE, Martin McTague, McTague, Suban Abdulla, William Schomberg, Andy Bruce Organizations: Bank of England, National Statistics, Federation of Small, Hospitality, Thomson

"When the 10-year yield goes up, it will have a knock-on effect for almost everything," according to Brett House, economics professor at Columbia Business School. There are many factors driving the recent spike in Treasury yields, economists said. Most of the recent jump in Treasury yields is due to a so-called term premium, said Andrew Hunter, deputy chief U.S. economist at Capital Economics. Student loans could get pricierThere is also a correlation between Treasury yields and student loans. The government sets the annual rates on those loans once a year, based on the 10-year Treasury.

Persons: Jerome Powell, Mark Hamrick, Brett House, Andrew Hunter, Hunter, Tony Dwyer, Canaccord Genuity, Freddie Mac, Eugenio Aleman, Raymond James Organizations: Federal, Stock, Fed, Columbia Business School, Treasury, Capital Economics Locations: U.S

"When the 10-year yield goes up, it will have a knock-on effect for almost everything," according to Columbia Business School economics professor Brett House. Why Treasury yields have jumpedA bond's yield is the total annual return investors get from bond payments. There are many factors driving the recent spike in Treasury yields, economists said. Student loans could get pricierThere is also a correlation between Treasury yields and student loans. The government sets the annual rates on those loans once a year, based on the 10-year Treasury.

Persons: Jerome Powell, Mark Hamrick, Brett House, Andrew Hunter, Hunter, Freddie Mac, Eugenio Aleman, Raymond James Organizations: Treasury, Columbia Business School, Fed, Capital Economics Locations: U.S

That changed in September when U.S. central bank officials themselves sensed that progress on housing inflation might have stalled. Data released on Thursday confirmed a jump in shelter prices that, for a month at least, bucked the trend. "The uptick in housing inflation this month was the key surprise. Housing inflation will need to decline sharply over the coming months for us to see inflation near 2%." In the list of risks for inflation to remain elevated, Fed officials in September pointed to "the effects of a strong housing market."

Persons: Sarah Silbiger, Olu Sonola, aren't, Jerome Powell, Kathy Bostjancic, disinflation Powell, Andrew Hunter, CoreLogic, Hunter, Howard Schneider, Paul Simao, Jonathan Oatis Organizations: REUTERS, Rights, Federal Reserve, Fitch, Fed, Nationwide, Reuters Graphics Reuters, Capital Economics, Reuters, Thomson Locations: Washington , U.S, U.S

☆ Here’s the inflation breakdown for September 2023 — in one chart
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-12 | by ( Greg Iacurci | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

Mario Tama | Getty ImagesInflation was unchanged in September, but price pressures seem poised to continue their broad and gradual easing in coming months, according to economists. Despite recent improvements, economists say it will take a while for inflation to return to normal, stable levels. The U.S. Federal Reserve aims for a 2% annual inflation rate over the long-term. "Ultimately, inflation is still the most menacing issue in the economy right now," said Sarah House, senior economist at Wells Fargo Economics. Why inflation is returning to normalAt a high level, inflationary pressures — which have been felt globally — are due to an imbalance between supply and demand.

Persons: Mario Tama, Andrew Hunter, Sarah House, there's Organizations: Getty, U.S . Bureau of Labor Statistics, Capital Economics, U.S . Federal Reserve, Wells, Wells Fargo Economics, CPI, BLS Locations: U.S, Wells Fargo, Russia, Ukraine

☆ Why health insurance is poised to make inflation jump
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-17 | by ( Greg Iacurci | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Suriyapong Thongsawang | Moment | Getty ImagesWhy health insurance inflation is hard to measureHealth insurance prices are a tricky thing for economists to quantify. Instead, the agency measures health insurance inflation indirectly based partly on health insurers' profits. It appears that health insurance prices measured in the CPI "will start rebounding" again, said Andrew Hunter, deputy chief U.S. economist at Capital Economics. How health insurance profits affect inflationEarly in the Covid-19 pandemic, health insurers' profits jumped. Why health insurance inflation mattersThe U.S. Federal Reserve raised interest rates aggressively starting early last year to rein in persistently high inflation.

Persons: Suriyapong, Andrew Hunter, Mark Zandi, Zandi, Jerome Powell Organizations: BLS, Capital Economics, Health, Moody's, Consumers, U.S . Federal Reserve, Federal Reserve, Federal

☆ CNBC Daily Open: August’s CPI report isn’t as bad as it seems
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-14 | by ( Yeo Boon Ping | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

Celal Gunes | Anadolu Agency | Getty ImagesThis report is from today's CNBC Daily Open, our new, international markets newsletter. CNBC Daily Open brings investors up to speed on everything they need to know, no matter where they are. What you need to know todayThe bottom lineAt first glance, August's CPI report seems bad news. And gasoline prices have actually retreated 3.3% from a year ago, suggesting that they're still on a downward trend in the long run. Indeed, the annual measure of core CPI still dropped from 4.7% in July to 4.3% in August.

Persons: Celal, we've, Andrew Hunter, Lisa Sturtevant, Sturtevant, Kayla Bruun, " Bruun, Dow, —, Jeff Cox, Greg Iacurci Organizations: Anadolu Agency, Getty, CNBC, CPI, U.S . Bureau of Labor Statistics, Capital Economics, Bright MLS, Morning, Markets, 3M, Caterpillar, Nasdaq Locations: Virginia, Tesla

☆ Here's the inflation breakdown for August 2023, in one chart
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-13 | by ( Greg Iacurci | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +5 min

Anadolu Agency | Anadolu Agency | Getty ImagesInflation rose in August on the back of higher gasoline prices, according to the consumer price index. Gasoline was the largest contributor to inflation in August, accounting for more than half of the increase, according to the BLS. This pared-down measure — known as "core" CPI — fell to an annual rate of 4.3% in August from 4.7% in July. On a monthly basis, core inflation rose slightly, to 0.3% in August from 0.2% in July. The increase in monthly core CPI "is a little bump in the road," said Kayla Bruun, senior economist at Morning Consult.

Persons: Andrew Hunter, Hunter, Kayla Bruun, " Bruun, Greg McBride, Ben Bernanke, Olivier Blanchard, Scott Olson Organizations: Anadolu Agency, Getty, Capital Economics, U.S . Bureau of Labor Statistics, CPI, AAA, BLS, Transportation, U.S . Department, Morning, Bankrate, U.S . Federal Reserve, Peterson Institute for International Economics Locations: Virginia, U.S

☆ August core inflation, excluding food and energy, rose 0.3%, hotter than expected
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-13 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

However, excluding volatile food and energy, the core CPI increased 0.3% and 4.3%, respectively, against estimates for 0.2% and 4.3%. Federal Reserve officials focus more on core as it provides a better indication of where inflation is heading over the long term. Inflation posted its biggest monthly increase this year in August as consumers faced higher prices on energy and a variety of other items. Food prices rose 0.2% while shelter costs, which make up about one-third of the CPI weighting, climbed 0.3%. Within shelter, the rent of primary residence index rose 0.5% and increased 7.8% from a year ago.

Persons: Dow Jones, airfares, Lisa Sturtevant, Sturtevant, paychecks, Andrew Hunter Organizations: Federal Reserve, U.S . Department of Labor, Transportation, Bright MLS, Treasury, Labor Department, Capital Economics, Group

Excerpts of a new biography of Musk published by The Washington Post last week revealed that the Ukrainians in September 2022 had asked for the Starlink support to attack Russian naval vessels based at the Crimean port of Sevastopol. However, in the months since, the U.S. military has funded and officially contracted with Starlink for continued support. Until Musk’s refusal in Ukraine, there had not been a focus on whether there needed to be language saying a firm providing military support in war had to agree that that support could be used in combat. “We acquire technology, we acquire services, required platforms to serve the Air Force mission, or in this case, the Department of the Air Force,” said Andrew Hunter, assistant secretary of the Air Force for acquisition, technology and logistics. “So that is an expectation, that it is going to be used for Air Force purposes, which will include, when necessary, to be used to support combat operations.”

Persons: Elon Musk’s, Frank Kendall, Musk, he'd, Starlink, Kendall, ” Kendall, “, Mike Minihan, ”, Andrew Hunter Organizations: SpaceX, Air Force, The Washington Post, U.S ., Pentagon, Air Force Association, Air, Air Mobility Command, ”, ” As U.S, ., Department of Locations: Md, Ukraine, Crimea, Sevastopol, Russia, Harbor , Maryland, ” As

☆ 6 things to know about the job market right now: It's 'near-perfect,' economist says
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-01 | by ( Greg Iacurci | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +5 min

Job growth is slowingThe U.S. economy added 187,000 jobs in August, the Labor Department said Friday. Job growth is clearly losing momentum: The three-month average in August was 150,000 jobs added, versus 201,000 in June, for example, Bunker said. Further, monthly job growth still exceeds U.S. population growth, economists said. Unemployment is up — but not for bad reasonsThe unemployment rate jumped to 3.8% in August from 3.5% in July, the U.S. Labor Department said Friday. There were about 8.8 million openings in July, the fewest since March 2021, according to Labor Department data.

Persons: Mario Tama, Bunker, Julia Pollak, Lat, Aaron Terrazas, Andrew Hunter, Pollak, —, Zandi, Andrew Patterson, Hunter Organizations: Getty, Labor Department, Yellow Corp, U.S . Labor Department, Capital Economics, Workers, Vanguard, White House Council, Economic, CEA Locations: U.S, Hollywood

☆ UK jobs market lost some of its heat in July - survey
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-20 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +1 min

LONDON, Aug 21 (Reuters) - Britain's labour market is losing some of its inflationary heat with vacancies and advertised starting salaries falling in July for the first time this year, according to a survey published on Monday. Job search website Adzuna also said the number of job-seekers per vacancy rose slightly in July but the overall state of the labour market remained tight. The Bank of England is looking closely at the labour market as it considers how much further it needs to raise interest rates to smother high inflation. Adzuna said employers were becoming more secretive about pay rates as the labour market cooled with over half of adverts not disclosing salary details for the first time. Writing by William Schomberg, Editing by Kylie MacLellanOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

Persons: Adzuna, Andrew Hunter, William Schomberg, Kylie MacLellan Organizations: The Bank of England, Thomson

☆ Strong US retail sales underscore economy's resilience
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-15 | by ( Lucia Mutikani | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +6 min

SummaryCompanies Retail sales increase 0.7% in July; June sales revised upCore retail sales jump 1.0%; June sales revised downImport prices rebound 0.4%; down 4.4% year-on-yearWASHINGTON, Aug 15 (Reuters) - U.S. retail sales increased more than expected in July as Americans boosted online purchases and dined out more, suggesting the economy continued to expand early in the third quarter and keeping a recession at bay. Retail sales jumped 0.7% last month. Sales at food services and drinking places, the only services category in the retail sales report, shot up 1.4% after rising 0.8% in June. Excluding automobiles, gasoline, building materials and food services, retail sales surged 1.0% in July. Data for June was revised lower to show these so-called core retail sales increasing 0.5% instead of the previously reported 0.6%.

Persons: Goldman Sachs, Andrew Hunter, David Russell, Matthew Martin, Ben Ayers, Lucia Mutikani, Paul Simao Organizations: Commerce Department, Capital Economics, Retail, Reuters, Consumers, Market Intelligence, Wall, Treasury, Labor Department, Oxford Economics, delinquencies, New York Fed, Nationwide, Thomson Locations: WASHINGTON, U.S, New York, Columbus , Ohio

☆ Here's the inflation breakdown for June, in one chart
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-12 | by ( Greg Iacurci | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +7 min

The CPI is a key barometer of inflation, measuring prices of anything from fruits and vegetables to haircuts and concert tickets. Hourly earnings increased 0.2%, on average, from May to June after accounting for inflation, according to BLS data. 'Encouraging' inflation signals moving forwardThe inflation slowdown has been broad-based, Zandi said. watch nowGrocery price inflation is also down significantly from its peak around 14% last summer, which had been the highest rate since 1979. Economists say it's a near certainty that housing prices will continue to fall through the second half of the year.

Persons: Michael M, Mark Zandi, Zandi, we're, Mark Hamrick, Andrew Hunter, Ben Bernanke, Olivier Blanchard, Stephanie Roth, Roth Organizations: Lincoln Market, Santiago, Getty, U.S . Bureau of Labor Statistics, Moody's, BLS, Capital Economics, Finance, U.S . Federal Reserve, Peterson Institute for International Economics, Morgan Private Bank Locations: Brooklyn , New York, U.S, Ukraine

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